Grading Jim Hendry's Offseason Moves

*Last updated January 30, 2009.

While we here at Worthless Sentiments have focused our recent posts on the EPL (excellent Transfer Season Talk post by the way Eugene), another topic near and dear to our hearts has also be dabbling in "transfers" recently...the Trio's beloved Chicago Cubs. The deals over the past few months, and more importantly over the past few days, has this Dobber scratching his head. Let's take a closer look at a few of the additions and subtractions so far this offseason by the "two-time defending NL Central Champs and subsequently swept from the playoffs by inferior opponents" Chicago Cubs.

Note: all grades are given based on the team as it stands to date. Any acquisitions to the team that affects the grades outlined will be updated once the transactions are official.

Jan. 30 - Sign C Paul Bako
The Paul Bako signing had been rumored for weeks and after clearing space on the 40-man roster, it became official today. The contract terms were not disclosed, but rumors stated that Bako will earn between $500-$750K this season. Funny thing, but the amount of cash the Cubs will shell out for Bako is basically the same amount the Padres will pay Henry Blanco ($750K) this season. Now I'm not going into too much depth for a back up catcher, but let's just take a quick look at last year's stats.

Bako - .217/.299/.328 and he threw out 22 of 77 baserunners (28.5%)
Blanco - .292/.325/.392 and he threw out 10 of 22 baserunners (45.5%)

Pretty much seems like Blanco is much better than Bako doesn't it? Well, that's because he is. The only reason the Cubs let Blanco walk is that he hits from the right side of the plate, while Bako hits from the left. Big deal. It doesn't matter which side of the plate you stand at if you can't hit. And as outlined above, Bako can't hit and he can't throw out baserunners. Better hope Soto is healthy all year Cubs fans.

Dobbers Grade: F

Jan. 28 - Trade INF Ronny Cedeno and RP Garrett Olson to Mariners for RP Aaron Heilman
The Cubs traded another one-time touted prospect in Ronny Cedeno and a guy who never actually wore a Cubs jersey in Garrett Olson to the Mariners for Aaron Heilman, a guy who never wore a Mariners jersey. Heilman had great success in his first few seasons in the majors, but had an absolutely abysmaal 2008 campaign for the New York Mets, before being traded for the first time this offseason in the J.J. Putz deal. There has been a lot of talk on message boards bashing this trade, but I actually think this is a good deal for the Cubs. For everyone who doesn't like the trade because they think Heilman sucks, well, I'll say you may very well be right. But you know who else sucks? Ronny Cedeno. This is a guy who was supposed to be a main stay at SS, but could never play consistent enough defense or actually hit the ball for an entire season. Cedeno did have a good start to last season, but then went back to his hacking at fastball's at his eyes (a la Corey Patterson) and didn't see much time after that. Plus add in the fact that every other GM knows he's out of options and you have a guy with little trade value.

As for Olson, yes he was young and left handed. But you know what else he was? Not a very good pitcher. And also a guy who wouldn't likely help the club in 2009. Last season was Olson's real first campaign and he had an ERA of over 6.50 and only whiffed 21 more batters than he walked (83 to 62). He also have up 168 in 132.2 innings. Young and lefty or old and righty. Doesn't matter...those aren't good stats. Peace out Olson.

As for Heilman, yes, he had a terrible 2008. Not quite Garrett Olson bad, but still pretty awful and I won't go into that here. What I will state that between 2005-2007 Heilman averaged a 3.27 ERA and a strikeout to walk ratio of 80 to 28. Many fans note that Heilman was misused in the Mets bullpen last year and if Heilman can be anything like he was from '05-'07, the Cubs have acquired a really strong pitcher. Regardless of where you stand on Heilman, the Cubs didn't give up much to take a chance on someone who could be very good. And hey, if he sucks, it will be just like having Cedeno and Olson anyway.

Dobber's Grade: A

Jan. 18 - Trade OF Felix Pie to Orioles for SP Garrett Olson and Minor-League RP Henry Williamson
In the long lines of over-hyped Cubs prospects, Jim Hendry officially turned the page on outfielder Felix Pie. Pie never lived up to his stature, because, well the guy just can't hit major league pitching. He is too undisciplined at the plate and doesn't work counts. That doesn't add up well. The guy does play solid defense, and maybe with more playing time, he'll figure out how to hit. Unfortunately for Pie, that time wasn't going to happen in Chicago.

As for Olson and Williamson, they are no real prizes. But hey, what can you get for a guy with no options left, who hasn't shown the ability to hit, and who every other GM in the league knows you're trying desperately to deal. The answer? Not much. Enter Garrett Olson and Henry Williamson.

Olson is a guy who looks like was rushed up to the major leagues by the Orioles. Hopefully this doesn't affect his confidence, as he hasn't put up great stats in the show. Olson has averaged 1.27 hits per inning pitched. His strikeout rate is about half of the number of hits he allows, which also isn't great. He doesn't have terrible command, walking 90 in 165 career innings, but it's not something to brag about. One thing to note, the Padres were interested in Olson a while back when they were shopping Khalil Greene. This has many Cubs fans salivating over a precursor that Olson will be dealt in a deal to finally land Jake Peavy. The Dobber is tired of hearing about possible Jake Peavy deals and therefore isn't going there. If and when a deal happens, I'll comment on it. Before then, Dobber's keeping his opinions to actual deals. Now, getting back to Olson, Hendry said himself that Olson would likely have been in AAA last year if with the Cubs. I tend to think he'll be there in 2009, unless he has a very solid spring training.

Not much to report on Williamson, although looking at his minor league stats, it appears he has some talent. Williamson has only pitched 29.0 total innings, but in those 29 innings, he's struck out 42, while surrendering 25 hits and issuing only 5 walks, all in relief. If Williamson's command stays strong, there is reason to believe he could make a big league bullpen someday.

When it all comes down to it, Pie had to go. Truth be told, Hendry should have traded Pie last season, when his stock was still relatively high. But since Hendry held onto Pie one season too many, he did what he could to get two guys who may make an impact with the Cubs, either on the field or via a future trade. Depending on if Pie makes the most of his opportunities in Baltimore, time will tell on this deal. But an immediate reaction looks like a good move for the Cubs.

Dobber's Grade: A-

Jan. 8 - Sign OF Milton Bradley
The Cubs made no secret they coveted Bradley and that he was their #1 offseason priority. There is no doubting Bradley's talent. The guy is a hell of a ball player. In the past two seasons, Bradley has hit over .310 and had an OBP over .410. The problem is, Mr. Game Board himself has played in over 120 games only twice in his nine year career, and last year when he played in the second most games of his career, he did so primarily as a DH. In addition, Bradley has a propensity to wear his emotion on his sleeve, which has made for some memorable altercations throughout his career. Since many Cub fans have varying opinions on the Bradley signing, I thought I'd take a look at the other options the Cubs had to fill their left handed hitting, middle of the order RF desires.

Raul Ibanez - Honestly, Ibanez was the Dobber's preference to Bradley. Ibanez is a model of consistency, playing in at least 150 games in each of the last few seasons while putting up a .291/.354/.492 stat line over the same time period. Add that to the fact that Ibanez plays a repsectible outfield, he would have been a fine addition to the Cubs, and at $31.5M over 3 years, would have commanded the same salary as Bradley. However Ibanez is 36 and the Phillies beat any possible suitors to the punch by locking up Ibanez on Dec. 16th.

Bobby Abreu - Abreu was another option to patrol the dead spot of grass once graced by Sammy Sosa. Abreu's stat line over the past three seasons at .294/.387/.462 and at 34 has a few years on Ibanez. Abreu, while not having the reputation to put his body on the line to make a play, isn't a terrible defender either. He doesn't have the ability as Bradley, but he certainly isn't as bad as say, Adam Dunn. The problem is that Abreu is seeking something similar to his $16M salary he earned last year and the Cubs would have had to trade someone like Harden to free up enough salary to meet those demands. I seriously doubt someone will be Abreu anywhere near $16M, but if he wasn't willing to move down much from that total, the Cubs just weren't the fit for him.

Adam Dunn - Many message boards noted a preference for Adam Dunn, most likely because Dunn kills it at Wrigley. You definitely know what you'll get with Dunn, as he's about as steady as they come. 150-160 games played, 40 HRs, roughly 100 RBI's, an OBP in the .380s, and a SLG in the .500-.540 range. However with these stats come a .240-250 batting average, an average of 177 K's a year, and defense that is just plain laughable at times. While Dunn's offensive output would have been a nice addition to the Cubs, his defense was the breaking point. The Cubs already have a suspect corner outfielder in Alfonso Soriano, and while both Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome are excellent defenders, neither can cover that much ground.

Now back to the man the Cubs actually signed, Milton Bradley. As outlined above, you can't knock Bradley's athletic ability. Although after listening to Bradley's press conference today, it's apparent that Bradley doesn't like the media. That's fine when you're in Texas and Oakland, but when you just signed a $30M deal with the Chicago Cubs, you better get used to the media and fast. This could be an issue with Bradley, but until he blows up, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

However, what I won't turn a blind eye on is the fact that it's almost a certainty he will get injured and miss time in 2009. That along with the yearly DL stint or two for Alfonso Soriano, could lead to two very large holes in the Cubs lineup if both were out at the same time. Bottom line here is Bradley is a stud when on the field, but a regular visitor to the DL. Jim Hendry just rolled the dice with his new acquisition that Bradley will be healthy for an end of the season push and hopefully deep playoff run. If Bradley is healthy and puts up numbers in September and October, should the Cubs make it back to the postseason, no one will look back at this signing in angst. However if Bradley is shut down at the end of the season, Cubs fans will be crying out for Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa. While I would have preferred the stability of Ibanez, once he was off the market, Bradley was the next best thing. With that in mind, I like Hendry's gutsy move by signing Milton Bradley and I think there's a good chance Hendry's gamble pays dividends.

Dobber's Grade: B+

Jan. 6 - Trade SP Jason Marquis to the Rockies for RP Luis Vizcaino
In a precursor to the Milton Bradley signing (more on this in a moment), the Cubs finalized the trade of Jason Marquis and his massive contract to the Rockies for Luis Vizcaino. Now, I'm not one to bash Marquis as much as other Cubs fans. In fact, I actually think Marquis is a very adequate #5 starter. The problem with Marquis is that his contract pays him roughly $9.7M and that is a ridiculous salary for an innings-eating #5 starter. And while I wouldn't say the Cubs have a plethora of SP to step in the #5 role, I think they can fill that spot with relatively the same type of productivity, whether that includes in house options like Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Angel Guzman, or the incredible long shot of Rich Hill. All deals prior to Marquis' trade were based on the Cubs dumping payroll. Marquis' salary is definitely the black hole that freed up cash to make the splash in the free agent OF market that the Cubs made no secret as a top priority this offseason.

Obviously Marquis had to go to clear payroll, but what about what the Cubs got in return in Luis Vizcaino? It seems that Vizcaino's best year are behind him, as his ERA has raised significantly over the course of the last three season's spent with the Diamondbacks, Yankees and Rockies. Over those past three seasons Vizcaino's hits per inning have also increased. 2008 also was an injury plagued year for Vizcaino as he appeared in only 43 games after averaging 70 appearances a year from 2002-2007. Fortunately for the Cubs, Vizcaino (if he indeed stays a Cub) won't likely be pressed into too many late inning situations. Vizcaino is no prize, but he is an upgrade in the Dobber's eyes over Bob Howry, the guy who used to fill Vizcaino's future roll.

Dobbers Grade: B+

Dec. 31 - Sign INF Aaron Miles
On the same day the Cubs said goodbye to DeRosa, the Cubs looked to replace Mr. Versatility in a lesser and more inexpensive version in Aaron Miles. In another cost cutting move by Hendry, the Cubs are thinking they can bascially get a similar player in Miles for $2.2M that they had in DeRosa for $5.5M.

In the past two seasons, Miles has played 2B, SS, 3B, LF, PF, P. Yes, that's correct, he did pitch 1 inning in 2008, but it's sort of like when Jose Canseco pitched an inning for the Rangers in 1993. Although unlike Canseco, Miles didn't miss the remainder of the season by blowing out his arm and needing Tommy John surgery.

2008 was a career year for Miles offensively with a .317 average, .355 OBP, .398 SLG, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 23 BB, 37 SO, 3 SB in 379 at bats. Defensively Miles posted a .9954 fielding percentage at 5 positions.

Looking at the stats, Miles is a slight upgrade defensively over DeRosa. However, he only played 6 games in the outfield for St. Louis last year, so his OF abilities are still somewhat of a mystery. Miles is a contact hitter, who had a very nice year last season, but that was the first time in Miles' career that he has hit over .300 for a full season. The true test for Miles is whether he is coming into his own as a contact hitter, or if last year was an abberation.

The Cubs depth chart already has Miles listed at the regular at 2B, although something tells me 2B will be mainly occupied by the other half of the Cajun Connection, Mike Fontenot. It's no secret Lou loves this guy, and with his .305 average, .395 OBP, and .514 SLG in 2008, what's not to like. The question, as with Miles, is whether the 2008 version or the 2007 version (that of .278 average, .336 OBP, .402 SLG) is the real Mike Fontenot. This should be an interesting competition to watch in Spring Training.

Bottom line is whoever repeats (or comes close to) their performance in 2008 is likely who'll command 2B for the Cubs next year. Let's just hope the $3.2M savings the Cubs received on swapping Miles for DeRosa goes to good use on a hitter who can fill the void of RBI's that went to Cleveland along with DeRosa's bat. When grading this transaction, one has to factor the hole that was created by the trade of DeRosa. With that in mind, while Miles is not the caliber of player of DeRosa, he is someone with the ability to play multiple positions was needed. Miles makes a decent filler of this void.

Dobbers Grade: B

Dec. 31 - Trade INF Mark DeRosa to Indians for Pitching Prospects Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub
Obvioulsy this deal was a salary dump to help make a future acquisition. This Cub fan is also hoping this trade is a precurser to Hendry using some (or all) of the prospects acquired in this trade to make another move. Otherwise, I think the Cubs got hosed big time. Let's take a look at DeRosa's two years with the Cubs.

Mr. Versatility was also Mr. Consistency. Not only did DeRosa play 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF and RF, he did so while putting up solid numbers with roughly a .290 batting average, 80 RBIs, double digit HRs (10 in '07, 21 in '08) and .373 OBP. Plus DeRosa was the second most handsome Cub to don Cubbie Blue since Todd Walker. Seriously both of these guys could snatch daytime Emmys like its their second job. Add that to the fact DeRosa never once complained, always played hard, and was a fan favorite. You know what all that gets you sports fans? That's right, a plane ticket out of town!

Of the three prospects the Cubs received in return, all three look like future bullpen guys at best. Stevens has an outside chance to make it to the bigs this year, but I would honestly be surprised to see Stevens with any club until the Sept. call ups. Gaub had a ridiculous strikeout ratio last year between rookie ball and single A (100 K's in 64.0 innings pitched), but along with Archer, is likely at least 1-2 yrs away.

Without using these newly acquired prospects in another deal, it's hard to imagine the Cubs better off next season, or in 2010, by making this transaction. With the perpetual window of opportunity for the Cubs only going to stay open for a few years, I can't see how any of these three prospects make an impact in a Cubs uniform during this time.

Dobbers Grade: D

Dec. 16 - Sign OF Joey Gathright
When first reading about the Cubs signing speedster CF Joey Gathright to a one-year $800K contact, I thought, eh, I guess he can't hurt. Then I remembered the Cubs have pretty much the same exact player under contract for roughly $400K less in CF Felix Pie.

Now, I will point out that I am not a huge fan a Felix Pie. I think he has been hyped way to much as the next great Cubs prospect. I seem to remember a few other next great Cubs prospects that were sure to grace Wrigely Field for years and years. Bobby Hill. Hee Seop Choi. Corey Patterson. You know what these three have in common? They were all busts for the Cubs. And you know who is in danger of joining that list? Felix Pie.

Look, the guy does have some talent. He plays great defense and does have speed, although he doesn't seem to use that to swipe bags. Plus he can hit...just not major league pitching. But boy put him in AAA and he'll hit the leather off the ball.

So all these knocks against Pie should be positives for Gathright, right? Wrong. The problem is Gathright plays decent defense (not as good as Pie), but just like Pie, he can't hit. Gathright's entire hitting approach is to slap at balls and lay down bunts. Bunting has its time and place, but I for one think that even Pie is capable of laying down a bunt when its called for. I will give Gathright credit in the stolen base department, as he did swipe 21 bags in 105 games last season. But with a career OBP of .328, it's hard to steal bases when your ass is on the bench.

Unless Pie is dealt this offseason, I just don't understand why you pay an extra $800K for a guy you already have on the roster. But as I write this, both guys are on the roster, so that's what I'm using to grade this transaction.

NOTE: Since Felix Pie was traded Jan. 18 to the Orioles, a new grade has been updated. I'm still not a huge fan of Gathright, but he makes a little more sense now that Pie is out of the way. The problem I see is that the Cubs bench has a number guys who bat from the left side of the plate, but just don't hit much from the left side of the plate. Plus, the Cubs still have a late inning defensive replacement with speed in Reed Johnson, so I still don't quite get what Gathright brings to the table. I would have preferred a signing a bench player with a better OBP and that has the ability to take the ball deep. Currently the only bench player who fits that bill is Micah Hoffpauir, who I'm all for giving a shot, but we just don't know if he'll be that guy or not.

Dobber's Grade: D

Nov. 30 - Do not offer arbitration to CL Kerry Wood
This was obviously coming after the acquisition of Gregg, but still stung a lot of Cubs fans. Woody was the quintessential Cubbie over his 10 years at the Friendly Confines. Wood became a symbol for all Cubs fans on May 6, 1998 when he struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field in a one-hitter that really should have been scored a no-hitter with an error.

Now depending on who you believe, there were two sides this story. Hendry and the Cubs stated that they just couldn't commit to the years and dollars Wood wanted. Wood's camp stated that Woody would have be open to coming back for another year if offered arbitration.

Bottom line is that while Nov. 30th was a sad day in Cubs history, all good things must come to an end. Baseball is a business and the Cubs need to cut payroll to get the left handed hitting outfielder they've been salivating for since "The Playoff Embarassment: Part Deux" came to a close in Los Angeles.

The Dobber doesn't have to like it, but the Dobber does have to accept it.

Dobbers Grade: C

Nov. 13 - Trade RP prospect Jose Ceda to Marlins for RP Kevin Gregg
The Cubs traded Jose Ceda, a young fireballer prospect who 1) has drawn Lee Smith comparisons, 2) was deemed untouchable in last year's Brian Roberts trade rumor fiasco, and 3) was under contract for 6 more years for...one year of Kevin Gregg?

I tend to not look at win-loss records and ERA for relievers...they're too easily inflated. Rather I tend to look at a few stats that are more indicative of the pitchers consistency. Here's the breakdown on Gregg's season averages over his career in The Show (excluding a late Sept. call up in 2003).

Gregg - 77.0 IP, 71.6 H, 3.6 HR, 31 BB, 70.4 SO, 30.5 SV 37 SVO. Gregg is arbitration eligible and will likely have a 2009 salary in the $5.5-6.0MM range.

At first glance, respectable stats, but do they hold up against the back of the bullpen arms Cubs fans coveted last season?

Marmol - 77.9 IP, 50.6 H, 9.0 HR, 45 BB, 89.6 SO, 8 SV, 11 SVO. Marmol is currently under team control as he has yet to log enough big league experience and had will have a ridiculously low salary in the $450-550K range for next season. That is unless the Cubs lock up Marmol long term, which I tend to think might happen, providing Hendry still has money left before opening day.

Wood - 66.1 IP, 54.0 H, 3.0 HR, 18 BB, 84.0 SO, 34 SV, 40 SVO. It should be noted that I am only using Wood's stats as a reliever from 2008. I tried to think of a way to integrate his stats from 2007 in which he only appeared at the end of the year, but I had to face the facts that I'm just not that good at math. So deal with it. And with Wood's new Indians contract (more on that in a moment), Woody's 2009 salary is $10MM.

At first glance I wanted to bash this trade, but when looking at the cost savings between Gregg and Wood, I can understand it. Obviously Wood is the superior pitcher, but Gregg is no slouch and should do just fine for the Cubs. The real issue is that the Cubs traded away a guy who could be dominant in 2-3 years for someone who is big league ready. I'm not necessarily of fan of this thinking, but obviously the Cubs have a win-now mentality as the window to win with the core of this team is likely only 2-3 more years anyway.

While Gregg should be okay in the Cubs pen in 2009, the real truth to this deal will come through in 2010-2011 when Ceda strikes out the side at Wrigely...in a Marlins uniform.

Dobber's Grade: C-